Psybertron Asks

Common Dreams via Robot Wisdom. Another one spot on the mark. Interesting that the hand-wringing fall-out from 9/11/FBI, Enron / Andersens / WorldCom should spark this re-emergence of the blindingly obvious facts. If you insist on rational models (like accounting) you should not be surprised that the rationalisation of the irrational creates misinformation and misguided business decisions – this is the Galbraith / Argyris / DeLorean thread at work – I must sound like a cracked record.

Of course ! – “blindingly obvious” is a clue in itself – so blinding that ignorance of it looks like a deliberate conspiracy in hindsight ? – hadn’t spotted this angle before. Many a true word spoken in aphorisms. How can you not see the blindingly obvious ? is a non-sequitor. Standard metaphorical jargon is often closer to the truth than the reality for which it is a metaphor – another recurring theme.

Interesting corollary I’ve been meaning to follow-up – the article includes quotes concerning Adam Smith’s writing of “The Theory of Moral Sentiments.” before “The Wealth of Nations.”, that the order they were written is significant. Pirsig’s levels of values / Maslow’s hierarchy of needs all relevant here. I have a strong thread on “knowledge” being an emergent property of humans interacting and, in looking for the reverse relationship of what drives human nature / common sense / no-brainer actions to be the way they are, I have been drawn towards Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” analogy. Could there be more to this than analogy I wonder ?

Salon via Robot Wisdom. Another one to add to the thread, like the one on complexity of business solutions spotted earlier by Leon. Great work if you can get it. Business is so complex that systems are unlikely to model them very well, but being so complex, it’s unlikely anyone will notice that they don’t actually work. (Interesting that Jorn considers the claim “appalling” whereas it’s actually my starting point that this state of affairs exists.)

Thread on comp.ai.philosophy
Age old basic question but a long and interesting thread getting into many relevant subjects and a source of links. Entropy, complexity, micro / macro scales, quantum mechanics and much more.

Latest update from Tiscali. Their web server and ftp server migrations were
out of synch, and my account details are yet to be uploaded to the new ftp
server. That means the visible web pages are now over a month behind the
posted blog pages. Sounded like a firm promise this time – fingers crossed.
Updated 25th – ftp server still not accepting updates.

A promising feature from BloggerPro

Getting ready for new domain launch.

Simple ideas and proposed conventions for “text buttons” for linking html documents.

Boston Globe article on PKC (via Jorn)
And Jorn’s page of Lawrence Weed’s Problem-Knowledge Couplers biographical links.
Another interesting link from Jorn. A variation of the medical expert diagnostic system which, rather than following pre-structured diagnostic sequences of questions, suspends analysis until after asking many questions then seeks to find patterns and relationships. Interesting evidence of effectiveness, but even more interesting evidence of human nature response (from real doctors accused of making wrong diagnoses.)

From the AI perspective, seriously suggesting evidence that the system is more “intelligent” (more capable of analysing and diagnosing a problem) than an experienced doctor. Also an angle on simply capturing more “raw” facts without any rationalisation or analytical conditioning provides for much better use of the information later – hence to focus on “record-keeping”. “Taking 20 minutes to get the facts straight from the start, he says, saves time and money down the road.” (see my angle on the “fraudster” thread below.) “Straight Facts” – no interpretation, or context free interpretation only – the main issue.

It gets better (it’s a long three page article) – also a line on dangers of “averaging” and statisical probabilities in a complex situation. A line on suspending judgement in analysis. Focus on “couplers” – things which might relate symptoms, not the symptoms themselves. Emperor’s suit of clothes or Galbraith / DeLorean / Argyris conspiracy of silence too “In the field of medicine, for many, many years, we have all been pretending we do not know that everybody has been pretending.”. Even scientific method – a doctors response “…. science is our tool – how can a computer do that?” Its not the technology, it’s the method / the model – simple rational logic (scientific method) is just not the best way to know about a human condition. Know it.

The guy is running a company selling his PKC sofware tool, but the rhetorical evidence here is very convincing stuff. A gold mine article. (Thanks again Jorn).

New Yorker arcticle via Jorn.
Interesting comparison of individual IQ vs tacit knowledge and inter-personal relationships and correlations with “performance” of organisations, with some powerful evidence from McKinsey and connections with Enron / Andersens downfall. No suprises to discover it’s not what you know but who you know that matters, but its good to have better than anecdotal evidence of common sense.

In this hiatus in proceedings, still reading several different threads. Almost finished DNA’s Salmon of Doubt – a good compendium of existing published articles, plus 25 / 30% of an unfinished Dirk Gently novel (stangely – reviews by DNA and others of the work in progress suggest it was better plot material for an H2G2 novel, but I have to say it carries on where holistic detecting left off for me.) Confirms the guy really was a genius.

Have put Quine’s Word and Object to one side in the meantime, but still very interesting. Cogitating on Quine’s rather scathing analysis of scientific method, I’m also forming a new thread of complexity vs simplicity. Complex systems theory and the like are used by many in describing both the nature of true knowledge and the nature of human organisations, and of course, many people warn of applying “scientific method” to analysis of human organisations, along the lines that social science is not a science. Blindingly obvious I guess, but simplicity is at the heart of scientific method – logical induction by virtue of controlled experiments, with minimum numbers of variable changing at any given time in order to able to claim evidence as “proof”. By definition, complex systems are not like this. Quine doesn’t mention Occam’s Razor, but he’s talking about the same principle. If knowledge is about tacit understanding and relationships between people, then we should not expect to find any simple rational model for knowledge. Can I go home now ?

Whahay !! I’m back up again.
7 days off line, but it looks like Tiscali has completed their server migration.
Oops spoke too soon ! Still not there. This does not look good for Tiscali.