Fourth Turning – Pre-9/11 (1997 in fact) study on cultural / political global cycles – no obvious mention of underlying technological / economic cycles, but worth looking for parallels I suspect. Doomsday / holocaust prediction of 9/11-esque triggered events – it was ever thus etc. Salutory. [via Dave Pollard] Dave throws his hands up in horror at the fatalistic conclusions of the paper – I suspect I’ll feel the same if we can’t learn something more pro-actively useful from this.
One thought on “Fourth Turning”
Found it! Remarkable that you’ve looked at this as well. As I mentioned before, it has stuck in the back of my mind. Thing is, contrary to the review I link to (and Dave Pollard, which led me back to you(!)) I don’t think Strauss and Howe’s historical research is up to much, other than in the 20th century (which is more difficult to get wrong). The ‘rhythm’ I find compelling though, even if it is the differences between points in the cycle that matter more than an approximately similar shape.
FWIW I don’t think that 9/11 was the Fourth Turning. I think people are still mentally in the ‘autumn’ mode – ‘winter’ thinking is still to come, and my bet is that it is Peak Oil that will provoke the change.
Good to have you back on the blogosphere btw.