Causation – It’s Complicated

Facts, Causation & Speculation

Any “facts” not in the links provided are purely speculative on my part, but the connections are real enough. Anyone saying this happened because that happened should be confined to a lab, unless their whole audience recognises their rhetorical intent.

Three of these items are connected by the fourth – in causally complex ways –

The Shopkeeper

Outrageous that this well liked local Glasgow (Muslim, Ahmadi actually) shopkeeper should be brutally murdered (by a so-called Muslim) for expressing (Christian) Easter best-wishes to his customers and the nation.

He didn’t live to regret his more overtly religious coda advising Islam on the benefits of Christianity. Could that be considered blasphemous or even apostasy perhaps?

The Imam

There was much discussion some weeks ago about various Muslim institutions overtly praising the convicted murderer of  the Pakistani politician opposing blasphemy laws. Both blasphemy and murder carrying a death sentence in those parts.

Well, more recently the Imam of the Glasgow Mosque apparently spoke in praise of that murderer too. Who knows how that may or may not be linked to the murderer of the shopkeeper?

The Terrorist

The terrorist “insurgency” in Europe continues to take many twists and turns – the latest being this apparent attempt to get access to a Belgian nuclear facility. Politically significant, and maybe even (politically & economically) disruptive to nuclear power generation, but highly unlikely any terrorist would get access to any significant radioactive materials or inflict any damage to safe containment of such a plant.

[Except of course if they’re working inside jobs over a long period. Interesting that main threat is seen as psycho-politico-economic rather than human safety. Unless they actually build a bomb of course.]

[And – post note – 70+ dead families and children as Christian’s celebrating Easter targetted by Taliban in Lahore – whilst just down the road in Islamabad a mob in support of the anti-blasphemy-killerTaliban, wayward mosque or disaffected European youth #Letsbehonest the causation includes a common Islamist element.]

The Child

The thinking in this decision-tree is child-like for several reasons. Great joke, and seen as such, but also seen in many a social media response as “too true” and “accurate” – with veiled irony naturally. It may reflect – or parody – the simplistic political thinking of many, but it is of course dangerously wrong to suggest any close relationship to the real world.

View post on

The binary choices – too simplistic to start with, irrecoverably so, right from the first broke / not-broke choice, and the implied whose fault is the cause of subsequent choices in the decision tree laughably simplistic. (Yes, even gender isn’t binary.) Every choice and every contributing factor to each choice is causally more complex than that. A mockery to think the world can be represented this way.

The punchline may be in Ted Cruz certainty of belief in an imminent second coming, but the joke is in the first line (and every subsequent line).


But then it is the more child-like falling for the simplisticated Corbyn / Sanders idealised and utopian views of socialism.

The all or nothing (everything / nothing to do with Islam) take on Islamist Extremist terrorism and murder is the same simplistication problem.

[Or if you prefer – no more Islamic than the KKK are Christian? – #letsbehonest they share the same religious component – more explicitly so with Islamism.]

The police citing general but unspoken “religious motivations” in the murder of the Glasgow shopkeeper maybe need to be less PC about what the religious connections and motivations really are, without anyone being so crass as to point a finger at a single cause. God forbid. [Post Notes – here some progress on this and Douglas Murray in The Spectator.]

How little this Iraqi Terror story, with Muslim target victims in a faraway land, is being covered by the media wrapping themselves in the recent Belgian tragedy.

It’s politically correct – even outside politics – to be simplistic. Political correctness compounds all our problems. Dangerously so.


[Post Notes:

How non-PC then – Democracy (popular voting, hopefully?) is Overrated. 1 of 3
Not great. Disagree with reasoning so far ..

Two side of same coin – what causes radicalisation, and how to handle “returnees” from radical tourism.
The answer in both cases? – you’ve guessed – it’s complicated

Great piece by Maajid Nawaz in The Daily Beast.
Need to address denial of “fear of political incorrectness … to do with Islam”]

2 thoughts on “Causation – It’s Complicated”

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.